TL;DR take more risk OPT! For our sake!


noobermin

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I posted this here so I won't have to clutter the news forum.


I think it is unfair when OPT gets yelled off by the less informed people about the delays and the issues of which really, it isn't their fault. However, I think it's also unfair to them that they are still bound to the unreliable CC. I have to agree with those who say that whatever "good news" we get from CC ends up meaning more delays, it's true when you look at the bigger picture.


Now, I know we've heard it before; both the calls to ditch them and the responses from OPT regard number of reasons such as more upfront costs, more delays, etc. Still, I want this to highlight a more deeper concern I have for the OPT project: I think that you might be too conservative. That is, you guys aren't willing to take risks that might better the Pandora in the long run.


I've seen this all over the CC saga. First, the boards are post-paid without a contract. Why would anyone want to do this as stresses manufacturer less to really pull together (as we have seen)? Well, I've noticed how cancellations are gracefully accepted by OPT, which is kind, but this post-payment helps facilitate this that just in case it doesn't make it after all, the customers can get their money back.


Furthermore, there is unwillingness to switch to another board company because of the new upfront cost and greater delays. Well look at it this way. CC isn't keeping up with anything, they are creating probably the same delays if not more than if OPT had switched to a new producer. Moreover, when a lot of people joined for batch 2 (me included) not knowing the history of the project and thinking that indeed we'd receive a pandy come Christmas, when they had to wait, many of the impatient gave up and recashed their investments. So in the end, whether I guess OPT is willing to accept it or not, sticking with old CC cost both time and money (customers), and might probably be in the same deficits had they switched.


Before the rockets start flying, I want to bring to light this: so perhaps both options were equivalent after all had the OPT had some foresight (which honestly, they couldn't had unless they had seen the future. They must have at least considered the possibility). What appeal, therefore, had the former option of sticking with CircuitCo? Well, it involved less stepping into the unknown, some other company which could be worse and result in more payments and more delays and leading to the death of Pandora, probably with a little debt in the aftermath.


But what if that isn't it? What if the other company isn't worse but is better? What if that other company manages to produce 400 board a week without fail and does not fall side to "holidays" and such? What if it leads to constant Pandora production, probably seeing the success of Pandora, probably with a little profit in time?


That is a possibility, and it needs to be in the minds of the OPT. Stop worrying if it will fail, think about what will happen if it succeeds. Is your product good? You guys seem to really think so! If it indeed is may be the pandora is worth getting a loan or two. May be it is worth getting into trouble or getting into the unknown. You won't get there however if you stay on the dotted line without taking risks.


Being too risky is bad, but when heading up a project (not just a business, but any project that demands organization of people and resources), being too conservative keeps you from reaching the goal anyway.
 
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Well, the issue is:


Moving over to a new company for Batch 1 doesn't make sense.


We asked different companies, it takes a few months for them to set it up.


Also, additional money is needed.


A testing rig for the boards, samples before the mass production, etc.


The bare PCB production is done through CC as well.


A high quality 8-layer board is not easy to get. Fatih asked around a couple of companies in Taiwan, but they are all occupied by Apple (!!), so they can't produce any boards right now.


Aditionally, CC orders quite a few parts themselves, they have the parts for Batch 2 ready.


Whether they would sell them to us if we move production away is another question, so we'd need to get these parts through the other company as well.


So moving to another company would take a few months, might be up to 6 or 7 (depending on if the first sample run works out reliable, etc.)


This is only possible, if done in parallel while CC is producing, otherwise, a few months of nothing happening will probably kill the Pandora.


If we setup a new company in parallel, we'd need to pay them in advance, so about 600.000 USD would be needed to start with about 1000 units at a new company.


It's not just about risk, it's about time and money.


If another company would say: "We'll do it! We can start in one month!" and it would cost a bit more, I'd do it right away (well, after getting samples, as I wouldn't trust that date).


So yeah, if someone would back us with about 600.000 USD, we could do so...


Sadly, it's not the risk we wouldn't take. It's money we don't have.


It's like saying: If your car is too slow, take the risk to buy a new one!


However, if you don't have the money to buy a new one, you can't even take that risk...
 
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In defense of conservatism, consider that the Pandora PCB is a little out of the ordinary. CC is the same company that produces the Beagleboard/Pandaboard (so far as I know), which gives them a certain amount of expertise that no other manufacturer is gonna have. Plus they are located in the US, so OPT's intellectual property isn't gonna wind up in a cloned Chinese knockoff. And the nubs and shoulder buttons seem to be rather fiddly to manufacture onto the motherboard. You're gonna start again at zero on manufacturing issues like that if you were to switch production. There are good reasons to have chosen CC originally, I probably would have done the same back when the original decision was made. And there are good reasons to keep production at CC for the time being. OPT probably doesn't have the funds to absorb the delays involved with switching production and the quality issues that would come with it. I completely understand their decisions in this area.
 
I just wish you guys would work out how to take some outside capital as investment and use it to beef up production capabilities. I've tried to point out that there are willing investors in this community, but it apparently doesn't get very far. Perhaps you've made the decision to soldier on and keep all ownership of the project, and that is fair enough ..
 
I just wish you guys would work out how to take some outside capital as investment and use it to beef up production capabilities. I've tried to point out that there are willing investors in this community, but it apparently doesn't get very far. Perhaps you've made the decision to soldier on and keep all ownership of the project, and that is fair enough ..

Well, Craig is handling all this, I'd be more than happy to have some investment, as I've always been the "let's do it together"-guy.


I'm pretty sure Craig has his reasons though, but I'm one of the guys "Better safe than sorry". I don't want to get rich, I'm just happy if I can make achievements and move things, alone or together with other guys :)


You can invest in my company if you want, it would certainly help the Pandora since Craig and me share payments on parts, but basically, since Craig did pay the development of the Pandora, he's got the rights for the stuff, so without Craig, I couldn't even build Pandoras.
 
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