Anyone Interested In 1St Batch?


Well, he gave a lot of random numbers about his position, but let's say he's around position 1750, that being the average of the randomness he spewed. The chance that you'll get it sooner would be about 56.25%.

First, we want the chance that you'll be after him, so you'd be bumped up one, so: 4000 - 1750 = 2250. So 2250 out of 4000 chance that him canceling will bump up your order.

Expressed as a percent: (2250/4000) * 100 = 56.25

There are some other factors like the split between craigix's and ED's stores and of course if they're all in the same bunch when delivered, they'll both have more or less the same chance of being delivered at the same time, but there's no way to predict that with much accuracy (and within my abilities, as this is all just really basic math.).

So pretty much given the the fact that it's unlikely that you'll go from one shipping batch to a previous shipping batch by just being bumped up one, the percentage is probably somewhere around 1%, assuming ~100 pandoras per day.

Yes I am bored and tired. I get weird and overanalytical when I'm tired.
 
The key factor is, the only way it would speed up your order is if it pushed it from being the first Pandora on one day to the last on the previous.
Otherwise they all get shipped out at the same time, and should arrive at the same time regardless of the time they're completed during the day.
Assuming they do 100 per day, that means there's only a 1% chance of that happening, and they're speeding up all the time.
Combined with the ~50% chance of it even being before them in the queue, you're talking about a 0.5% chance?
 
That's a 56.25% chance that a given order is behind him in the queue, and therefore your order will be bumped by him cancelling.
If, however, you were to buy his Pandora (which I will assume to be the same as taking his place in the queue, for simplicity), then the probability of receiving your Pandora sooner is a little more interesting.

If you are in front of him in the queue, the delivery of your FIRST Pandora remains unchanged, as you will have 2 if you keep your original order.
In this case, the increase in queue position is 0.
If you are behind him in the queue, your first Pandora will be his, which is order number 1750, meaning you move forward in the queue by an average of 2250/2, which is 1125.

Calculating the expected gain in queue position:
(1750*0+2250*1125)/4000=632.8

Therefore, you would expect to receive a Pandora around 633 queue positions earlier if you buy this position and keep your current one.

If you cancel your current order and buy this one, your payoff changes, as you can move back in the queue by an average of 875 paces.
Therefore, the new expected gain in queue position is:
(1750*(-875)+2250*1125)/400=249.99

This means that it is *in theory* advantageous to cancel your order and buy his.
However, this assumes that you have no idea what your queue position is, and that there is a significant difference between small changes in position. In reality, it is possible to estimate your position or even email and ask what it is.

Yes, I'm bored, but it's nice to see that the work I did on game theory last term has an actual use.
 
Aninhumer said:
Assuming they do 100 per day, that means there's only a 1% chance of that happening, and they're speeding up all the time.
Combined with the ~50% chance of it even being before them in the queue, you're talking about a 0.5% chance?

That's the calculation from one's person egoistic point of view. But when you consider all the people that ordered from 1st batch you come to the conclusion that the cancellation would make 22.5 people get their Pandoras 1 day earlier.

22.5 is (4000 - 1750 /*assumed position in queue*/) / 100 /* assumed daily production */
 
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fiveseven said:
If you cancel your current order and buy this one, your payoff changes, as you can move back in the queue by an average of 875 paces.

Where does the 875 come frome?
 
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Emnasut said:
fiveseven said:
If you cancel your current order and buy this one, your payoff changes, as you can move back in the queue by an average of 875 paces.

Where does the 875 come frome?

1750/2=875

If I get really bored, I might see if I can adjust that model to take into account the fact that some Pandoras have already shipped/are currently shipping.
 
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Well I put it on Ebay, had to word it funny to avoid problems with ebay, but heres the link http://cgi.ebay.ca/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110541012641 .
 
may88 said:
Huh! Pandora Futures Market!

Not for me. May be some greed banker will take you up on buying something you don't own yet. :blink:

I'm surprised we haven't seen people trading their place and Pandora for cash and a Pandora. Given the level of nerd lust for these things, I'd think that somebody would be trying that.
 
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Nik1 said:
Well I put it on Ebay, had to word it funny to avoid problems with ebay, but heres the link http://cgi.ebay.ca/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110541012641 .
WOW $390 with no accessories ?!?!
I got the TV out cable and shipping and it was only $370.
 
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Well it's sure easy to make some fast $$$ here. Maybe i should have ordered 5 pandoras, and sell 4 of them.

But I'd feel guilty.
 
Nik1 said:
Well I put it on Ebay, had to word it funny to avoid problems with ebay, but heres the link http://cgi.ebay.ca/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110541012641 .
Wow thought if you was going to ebay it, you would have waited till you had it in your hands :eek:
 
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/copydir said:
Nik1 said:
Well I put it on Ebay, had to word it funny to avoid problems with ebay, but heres the link http://cgi.ebay.ca/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110541012641 .
WOW $390 with no accessories ?!?!
I got the TV out cable and shipping and it was only $370.

I removed the case case from my order early on, but on the receipt I asked them to make me (needed one for taxes) around January it included a case :S I was using that receipt for reference for my starting price. There is a possibility that winner might get surprise case if it wasnt removed from the order.
 
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Rectal Exambot said:
Wolenber said:
kingoddball said:
Cancel so I can move up in the line!
There's less than a 2% chance you'll get your Pandora any earlier from one cancellation.

Just saying.

Did you pull that figure out of no where? Where did the 2% come from?
60 Pandora's a day.
The chance that you were on that edge is mathematically 1 in 60, which is less than 2%.
 
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I wonder how much an actual Pandora would go for on eBay right now.
$500 US? More? Less?
 
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